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Wednesday, February 06, 2008

The GOP is sunk in November


If I had to find an alternative storyline to yesterday's Super Tuesday, it's-all-a-wash-in-the-end, vote it would have to be Democratic turnout. As Yglesias points out:
To me, most indications are that the Democrats have two strong contenders. Consider that in Missouri about 552,000 people came out to vote in the GOP primary -- a primary that all three candidates seriously contested. By contrast 800,000 people came to vote on the Democratic side. If you put all five candidates into a single election, Hillary Clinton's second place showing of 395,000 would have trounced John McCain's 194,304 for third place. Both candidates, in short, are good at appealing to large numbers of voters and getting them to show up.
These Missouri figures are echoed across the country. Eighteen million people voted yesterday. Eleven million voted for Democrats. That's incredible.

While Obama gets credit for bringing in most of the new voters, Clinton is solidly bringing in hers (some say the real Dem base). Part of my Obama support comes from my fear that if Hillary is the nominee the GOP base, with no one to vote for, will come out in droves just to defeat Hillary. While I think that still is true, the turnout numbers for the Dems have me believing that even an energized GOP base will not be able to counter this Democratic surge. Yes, it's possible that some of Obama's supporters won't show up, but once you get the voting bug it's hard to shake it. Once you get the idea stuck in your head that government can actually work, that incompetence does not have to rule, that a Republican does not have to win, the motivation to vote will be there. Everyone will show up in November and the numbers will be huge.

And who do we have to thank for this revival? George W. Bush. Who would have thought one man could motivate so many? He's like Obama with the motivating, except different.