Be careful what you wish for

Escalation supporters like McCain and Lieberman use the decrease in sectarian violence as an indicator that the president's "surge" is on track and bearing fruit (dates, if you will). The main reason sectarian violence is down in Iraq is due more to the fact that al-Sadr has ordered his militia to stand down, rather than any concrete success by our military on the ground. Well, it seems the natives are getting restless.

Seven weeks into the U.S.-led security crackdown in Baghdad, leaders of the Al Mahdi militia of Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada Sadr acknowledge that their fighters are chafing under orders to freeze operations, and worry they could lose control of the sprawling organization. [...]

Senior leaders of Sadr's movement also worry openly that Iran has started to recruit Al Mahdi fighters to possibly confront U.S. forces in Iraq.

Sadr's movement is part of the U.S.-backed government, but now American and Iraqi officials face the danger that the Al Mahdi militia may splinter into dozens of armed groups no longer under a national command.

If George Bush were a smart man he would get his Surge Mission Accomplished speech ready now, declare victory now, and get the fuck out of dodge, now. This powder keg is going to blow.