The Expectations Game

The vote on the gay marriage amendment over, and in the battle for hollow victories I'm gonna give the gay side a win. Not because the amendment came far from reaching the 67 votes needed to pass, or even the 60 needed for further debate, but because in the expectations game the GOP lost. And lost big. On Monday the GOP expected this:

The bill is not expected to win the 67 votes required for passage of constitutional amendments in the 100-member Senate. Bill sponsor Colorado Republican Sen. Wayne Allard has said he expects to attract 52 votes.

Today they got this:

The 49 to 48 vote basically ensures the measure won't get anywhere in the full Congress, thwarting President Bush and the mostly Republican senators who argued that the Constitution must be amended to prevent judges from striking down existing state bans on gay marriage.

Three votes from expectation, not too bad. However, that's not the best part. A major part of the GOP spin this week, was that this vote would serve to rally the base by showing some progress since 2004. Um, even that strategy didn't work out well. This from 2004:

The proposed amendment, championed by Bush, was killed for this session after a procedural vote to move the measure to the Senate floor for final consideration failed 48-50 -- 12 votes shy of the 60 required by Senate rules.

The hate vote fell by one since 2004. Progress? Not so much. I'm willing to bet the base is a bit disheartened this afternoon. Fingers crossed that maybe the GOP crossed the Schiavo Line* again on this one.

*Definition: Schiavo Line-- crossing the line by interfering one too many times in people's private lives, thereby causing public backlash. Alt. definition: a moment in time when the GOP shows itself for the religious-right ass-kissing frauds that they really are.